Blog > Most Home Sales Close. Here's How to Keep Yours on Track
By Randy Richardson, Broker Associate, The 4th Right Team
Quick Answer: Most home sales close. In September 2026, 14.5% of home purchase deals that went under contract nationwide fell through, according to Redfin. That means roughly 85 out of every 100 deals still made it to closing. On the Mississippi Gulf Coast, the deals that fall apart usually break over financing, the inspection, the appraisal, or insurance. Most of those problems can be spotted and solved before the contract is ever signed.
How Often Do Home Sales Fall Through?
More often than they used to, but it's still the exception. Redfin's 14.5% cancellation rate for September 2026 is one of the highest on record. Redfin ties that to a market where buyers have more choices and less reason to push through a problem.
Delays are more common than cancellations. In a National Association of REALTORS® survey of agents for March 2026, 13% of contracts had delayed closings over the prior three months.
The Coast fits the national trend. With more months of supply than a year ago, buyers here can walk away more easily. That makes it more important to get ahead of problems instead of reacting to them.
Why Do Home Sales Fall Apart on the Mississippi Gulf Coast?
Four things cause most of the trouble here: financing, inspection, appraisal, and insurance.
Financing gets shaky when the payment changes. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate hit 7.40% as of October 15, 2026, up from 6.71% in early September. A buyer who got pre-approved at a lower rate can find the new payment doesn't fit.
Inspections turn up the expected surprises, like aging HVAC systems, moisture, and roof wear. The appraisal can come in below the contract price, especially on homes with few recent comparable sales nearby.
Insurance is the one that's different on the Coast. Carriers look hard at roof age, flood zone, and wind coverage. If a buyer can't get an affordable policy, the lender won't close.
How Can Sellers Keep a Sale on Track?
Get ahead of the buyer's questions. A pre-listing inspection shows you what a buyer's inspector will find, while you still have time to fix it or price it in.
Have your insurance paperwork ready. If you have an elevation certificate, a recent roof, or a wind mitigation form, put them in the listing file. Buyers can get quotes faster, and quotes are where Coast deals often stall.
Price it right from day one. A home that starts at the right number is less likely to hit an appraisal gap later.
When problems come up, a seller credit toward closing costs or repairs can save a deal faster than a price fight. It also helps the buyer with cash at closing, which matters when rates are high.
How Can Buyers Keep a Sale on Track?
Start with a strong pre-approval. A letter based on fully documented income and credit holds up better than a quick online estimate. Talk to a local mortgage lender before you start touring.
Shop insurance before you fall in love. Get an insurance quote before you write the offer, using the actual address. Then bind the policy during your inspection period.
Keep your finances still until closing. Don't open new credit, change jobs, or make big purchases. Small changes can trigger a new review.
If you need to sell your current home first, plan that timing up front. Our guide on whether to sell first or buy first walks through the options.
What Happens if a Storm Shows Up During Your Contract?
Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30. When a named storm threatens the Coast, insurance carriers can stop writing new policies until it passes.
That can push a closing back by days or more. It's usually a delay, not a dead deal. The fix is simple: get the policy bound early, and build a little flexibility into your closing date during storm season.
What Should You Do if the Appraisal Comes in Low?
You have options. The seller can lower the price, the buyer can cover the gap in cash, or both can meet somewhere in the middle. Either side can also ask the appraiser to review comparable sales that may have been missed.
In today's market, sellers who stay flexible tend to keep the deal. Buyers have room to negotiate and more homes to choose from, so a stubborn standoff often ends with the buyer walking.
By the Numbers
Share of pending home sales that fell through nationwide in September 2026: 14.5%
Share of contracts delayed over three months, per NAR's March 2026 survey: 13%
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.40% as of October 15, 2026
30-year fixed mortgage rate in early September 2026: 6.71%
End of Atlantic hurricane season: November 30
The Bottom Line
Most deals close, and the ones that fall apart on the Coast usually do it for predictable reasons. Sellers who prepare and buyers who line up financing and insurance early take most of the risk off the table. A local agent can spot those problems before they turn into a canceled contract.
Thinking about selling? Start with a free home value estimate. Getting ready to buy? Our buyer's guide walks you through every step.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often do home sales fall through?
In September 2026, 14.5% of home purchase deals that went under contract nationwide fell through, according to Redfin. Most sales still close.
What is the most common reason a home sale falls through on the Mississippi Gulf Coast?
Financing, inspection, appraisal, and insurance cause most problems. Insurance is the Coast-specific risk, since roof age, flood zone, and wind coverage can make a policy hard to get.
Can a hurricane delay my closing?
Yes. When a named storm threatens the Coast, insurance carriers can pause new policies until it passes. Binding your policy early helps avoid a delay.
What happens if the appraisal comes in low?
The seller can lower the price, the buyer can cover the gap, or both can meet in the middle. Either side can also ask the appraiser to review comparable sales.
Sources
Redfin, September 2026 pending sales and cancellation rate: https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-home-sales-sink-rates/
National Association of REALTORS®, REALTORS® Confidence Index, March 2026: https://cms.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/2026-04/2026-03-realtors-confidence-index-04-13-2026.pdf
Freddie Mac via FRED, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 3, 2026: https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/32031/pdf
About the Author
Randy Richardson is a Broker Associate and Team Leader of The 4th Right Team at CENTURY 21 J. Carter & Company. He helps buyers and sellers across the Mississippi Gulf Coast make smart moves with clear, local numbers.
Randy Richardson | Broker Associate
The 4th Right Team | Century 21 J. Carter & Company
📞 Office: (228) 731-3881 | Cell: (228) 547-9999
📧 realtorrandyrichardson@gmail.com
🌐 www.The4thRightTeam.com
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